# Conflict & fragility scoreboard (ASEAN-10 + Timor-Leste)

Comparable national pack for **WGI Political Stability (PV)**, **Fragile States Index (FSI)**, **Global Peace Index (GPI)**, and a transparent **`conflict_flag`** — the unfinished **Conflict & fragility** backlog item under Politics & governance. Complements `governance_risk` (WGI GE/RoL/CoC + RSF + INFORM) and `climate_disaster` (hazard/exposure) — do not mash panels.

**As of:** 2026-09-10  
**Coverage:** BRN, KHM, IDN, LAO, MYS, MMR, PHL, SGP, THA, VNM, TLS  
**Rule:** No invented numbers. ACLED event/fatality cells are intentional empties.

## Indicators

| Metric ID | Unit | Source | Vintage |
|-----------|------|--------|---------|
| `wgi_pv` | estimate ≈ −2.5…+2.5 (higher = more stable) | World Bank WGI `GOV_WGI_PV.EST` | **2024** |
| `fsi_score` | 0–120 (higher = more fragile) | Fund for Peace Fragile States Index | **2024** |
| `fsi_rank` | rank 1 = most fragile | same | **2024** |
| `fsi_band` | Sustainable / Stable / Warning / Elevated Warning / Alert / … | same | **2024** |
| `gpi_score` | lower = more peaceful | IEP Global Peace Index | **2025** |
| `gpi_rank` | rank 1 = most peaceful | same | **2025** |
| `conflict_flag` | `major_active` / `subnational` / `low_or_none` | Derived — see `gaps.md` | **2025** rules |
| `acled_events` / `acled_fatalities` | count | ACLED | **GAP** all 11 |

## Panel rules

| Panel | Metrics | Do not |
|-------|---------|--------|
| **(1) Political stability** | wgi_pv | Average with FSI or GPI |
| **(2) Fragility** | fsi_score + rank + band | Relabel as “conflict intensity” |
| **(3) Peacefulness** | gpi_score + rank | Claim GPI measures state fragility |
| **(4) Conflict flag** | conflict_flag chips | Invent ACLED fatality bars |

## Files

| File | Role |
|------|------|
| `scoreboard.csv` | Long-format — **canonical** |
| `scoreboard_wide.csv` | Wide pivot |
| `gaps.md` | ACLED + Brunei GPI + derivation rules |
| `provenance.json` | Freeze metadata |
| `_raw/` | FSI PDF, GPI PDF, WGI API JSON |
| `../../PUBLISHABLE_Conflict_Fragility_SEA.md` | Writer brief |
| `../../SPEC_Conflict_Fragility_SEA.md` | Designer brief |

## Reading notes

- **Myanmar** is the conflict pole: WGI PV **−2.09**, FSI **100.0** (rank 11, Alert), GPI **3.045** (#153) — least peaceful in Asia-Pacific on GPI 2025.
- **Singapore** leads peace/stability among covered economies (GPI **1.357** #6; FSI **25.4** Sustainable); WGI PV **1.23** ties Brunei’s high cluster.
- **Philippines** vs MY/TH/VN/ID: weakest WGI PV of the five (**−0.77**); highest FSI among peers (**75.1** Elevated Warning); GPI **2.148** (#105) softer than ID/VN/MY; `conflict_flag` = **subnational**.
- **Brunei** has no GPI 2025 row — leave empty; do not borrow Singapore.
- Cross-link INFORM to `governance_risk` / `climate_disaster`; do not duplicate overall INFORM here.

## British English

Documentation uses British English where it does not conflict with primary-source labels.