# Inflation & policy rates scoreboard (ASEAN-10 + Timor-Leste)

Dedicated **headline CPI + monetary stance** pack for SEA-11. Complements `topics/scale_growth/` (which already carries WEO CPI beside growth) — this board separates **multi-vintage CPI** from **policy / key rates** and documents frameworks (esp. Singapore: MAS is **exchange-rate centred**, not a BI/BSP-style policy interest rate).

**As of:** 2026-09-11  
**Coverage:** BRN, KHM, IDN, LAO, MYS, MMR, PHL, SGP, THA, VNM, TLS  
**Linear:** [MED2-64](https://linear.app/media-os/issue/MED2-64/inflation-and-policy-rates-sea-scoreboard-brief-spec)  
**Rule:** No invented numbers. Empty cells for rate/framework gaps. Never average inflation with rates. Never invent a Singapore “policy rate”.

## Indicators

| Metric ID | Unit | Source | Vintage / as-of |
|-----------|------|--------|-----------------|
| `cpi_inflation` | % y/y | IMF WEO Apr 2026 `PCPIPCH` | **2026 projection** |
| `cpi_inflation_weo_2025` | % y/y | same | **2025** (WEO estimate/actual) |
| `cpi_inflation_wdi` | % y/y | World Bank WDI `FP.CPI.TOTL.ZG` | latest non-null (mostly **2025**; MMR **2019** only) |
| `policy_rate` | % p.a. | BIS WS_CBPOL + official CB cross-check | monthly end **2026-08** for ID/MY/PH/TH; others **GAP** |
| `real_policy_rate` | pp | Derived: `policy_rate − cpi_inflation` (WEO 2026) | only when both exist |
| `policy_framework` | label | Derived chip | `inflation_targeting` \| `exchange_rate_centred` \| `other` |

## Panel rules

| Panel | Metrics | Do not |
|-------|---------|--------|
| **(1) CPI 2026 (WEO)** | `cpi_inflation` | Mix with WDI/2025 bars without year badges |
| **(2) CPI 2025 / WDI** | `cpi_inflation_weo_2025` and/or `cpi_inflation_wdi` | Relabel WDI as WEO |
| **(3) Policy rates** | `policy_rate` | Invent SGP/VN/KH/LA/MM/BN/TL rates; use SORA as fake MAS policy rate |
| **(4) Framework chips** | `policy_framework` | Claim Singapore has a BI-style policy rate |
| **(optional) Real rate** | `real_policy_rate` | Present as market-observed real yield |

## Files

| File | Role |
|------|------|
| `scoreboard.csv` | Long-format — **canonical** |
| `scoreboard_wide.csv` | Wide pivot |
| `gaps.md` | Honest empties + caveats |
| `provenance.json` | Freeze metadata |
| `_raw/` | IMF DataMapper PCPIPCH JSON · WDI CPI JSON · BIS CBPOL SEA extract (+ zip) |
| `../../PUBLISHABLE_Inflation_Policy_Rates_SEA.md` | Writer brief |
| `../../SPEC_Inflation_Policy_Rates_SEA.md` | Designer brief |

## Reading notes

- **Philippines** WEO 2026 CPI **4.3%** sits above peers MY **1.9** · TH **0.9** · ID **3.0** (VN **4.9** is higher). BSP Target RRP **5.00%** (Aug 2026) vs BNM OPR **2.75%** · BoT **1.00%** · BI-Rate **5.75%**.
- **Thailand** is the soft-inflation pole among large ASEAN economies (WEO 2026 **0.9%**; WEO 2025 **−0.1%**) with the lowest locked policy rate (**1.00%**).
- **Myanmar** WEO inflation **19%** (2026) / **22%** (2025) carries conflict / data-quality caveat; WDI stops at **2019** — do not splice.
- **Singapore:** `policy_framework` = **exchange_rate_centred**; `policy_rate` empty. MAS steers via the S$NEER band, not a BI-style policy interest rate.
- **Rate coverage** in BIS WS_CBPOL for this pack: **ID, MY, PH, TH** only. VN/KH/LA/MM/BN/TL/SGP rates are intentional empties pending official locks.

## British English

Documentation uses British English where it does not conflict with primary-source labels.