# RCEP preference margins companion (ASEAN-10 + Timor-Leste)

Dedicated **RCEP preferential access** pack for SEA-11 — Day-1 duty-free tariff-line shares, sparse utilisation, and ERIA preference-margin bands. Companion to `topics/tariffs_rcep/` (applied/MFN + legal EIF only). **Dual story:** **applied MFN / applied tariff levels ≠ RCEP preferential access / utilisation.**

**As of:** 2026-10-02  
**Coverage:** BRN, KHM, IDN, LAO, MYS, MMR, PHL, SGP, THA, VNM, TLS  
**Day-1 duty-free panel:** **10/10 AMS** locked (APEC PSU 2022 Table 1.4); TLS = not_applicable  
**Linear:** auth-blocked at ship (suggested title below in gaps/provenance; parent to create MED2-xx Done)  
**Rule:** No invented HS-line rates. Empty ≠ zero. Do not overwrite `tariffs_rcep` cells.

## Indicators

| Metric ID | Unit | Source | Vintage / as-of |
|-----------|------|--------|-----------------|
| `base_duty_free_pct` | % tariff lines | APEC PSU 2022 Table 1.4 | Pre-RCEP base |
| `day1_duty_free_pct` (+ lo/hi) | % tariff lines | APEC PSU 2022 Table 1.4 | Day-1 schedule |
| `applied_sm_tariff_pct` | % | WDI via `tariffs_rcep` join | **2022** (TLS **2021**) |
| `mfn_sm_tariff_pct` | % | WDI via `tariffs_rcep` join | same |
| `rcep_party` / `rcep_in_force` / `rcep_eif_date` | Y/N / date | MTI SG + ASEAN; `tariffs_rcep` crosswalk | Legal status |
| `rcep_export_utilisation_pct` | % | CIRD EN summary (sparse) | **2023** for MY/TH/VN only |
| `eria_margin_band` | categorical | ERIA Hayakawa 2022 | Qualitative band |
| Partner util panel | % | IDE-JETRO PB 200 Table 2 | PH Jan–Oct 2024; JP/KR/TH 2023 |

## Panel rules

| Panel | Metrics | Do not |
|-------|---------|--------|
| **(1) Preferential schedule depth** | Base + Day-1 duty-free % of lines | Invent ultimate per-AMS %; invent HS rates |
| **(2) Applied/MFN levels (crosswalk)** | WDI SM joins | Relabel applied as “RCEP rate” |
| **(3) Utilisation (sparse)** | Export util MY/TH/VN; IDE partner import util | Fill empties with zero; average AMS util |
| **(4) Margin band** | ERIA categorical | Invent country MFN−RCEP percentage-point averages |

## Files

| File | Role |
|------|------|
| `scoreboard.csv` | Long-format — **canonical** |
| `scoreboard_wide.csv` | Wide pivot |
| `utilisation_partner.csv` | IDE-JETRO importer×partner util panel |
| `gaps.md` | Honest empties + caveats |
| `provenance.json` | Freeze metadata |
| `_raw/` | APEC/ERIA/IDE PDFs + lock notes |
| `../../PUBLISHABLE_RCEP_Preference_Margins_SEA.md` | Writer brief |
| `../../SPEC_RCEP_Preference_Margins_SEA.md` | Designer brief |

## Reading notes

- **Philippines** posts the **highest Day-1 duty-free share among AMS except Singapore**: **81.9–83.0%** of tariff lines (APEC) — yet RCEP EIF only on **2 Jun 2023** (last AMS) and IDE import util from China is only **~2%** (Jan–Oct 2024). Schedule depth ≠ utilisation.
- **CLMV Day-1 cluster is thin:** Cambodia / Laos **29.9%**, Myanmar **30.0%** vs Thailand **66.3%**, Vietnam **65.3%**, Indonesia **~65%**, Malaysia **69.9%**, Brunei **76.5%**, Singapore **100%**.
- **ERIA (2022):** forerunner AMS incremental RCEP margins vs best existing PTA are **trivial (at most ~0.6 pp)** against non-AMS; among AMS already ~0 (ATIGA). CLMV margins larger (esp. KH/LA vs Japan).
- **Ultimate aggregate:** APEC **89.7%** of RCEP tariff lines fully liberalised after 21 years; EnterpriseSG **~92%** of goods traded — aggregate claims, not per-AMS scoreboard cells.
- **Timor-Leste** is **not** an RCEP Party — preferential cells empty / not_applicable.

## British English

Documentation uses British English where it does not conflict with primary-source labels (APEC US spelling in table titles — preserve in citations).