# Sovereign ratings & debt distress scoreboard (ASEAN-10 + Timor-Leste)

Dedicated **sovereign LT foreign-currency ratings + IMF–WB LIC-DSF debt-distress risk** pack for SEA-11. Complements `topics/fiscal_debt/` (WEO public debt / fiscal balance) and `topics/external_balance/` (external debt % GNI). **Dual story:** never merge agency letter grades with DSF risk categories.

**As of:** 2026-09-21  
**Coverage:** BRN, KHM, IDN, LAO, MYS, MMR, PHL, SGP, THA, VNM, TLS  
**Linear:** [MED2-70](https://linear.app/media-os/issue/MED2-70/sovereign-ratings-and-debt-distress-sea-scoreboard-brief-spec)  
**Rule:** No invented numbers or DSF categories. Empty cells stay empty. Ordinals are sort-only.

## Indicators

| Metric ID | Unit | Source | Vintage / as-of |
|-----------|------|--------|-----------------|
| `sp_lt_fc_rating` / `moodys_lt_fc_rating` / `fitch_lt_fc_rating` | letter grade | Agency press + MOF/CB republication; TheGlobalEconomy secondary where noted | Mixed 2025–2026; badge agency dates |
| `*_lt_fc_ordinal` | 0–21 sort helper | Mapped from letter grade | Same as rating |
| `*_outlook` | outlook string | Same as rating | Same as rating |
| `lic_dsf_overall_risk` | Low / Moderate / High / In debt distress | IMF–WB LIC-DSF DSA | KH 2025 Low · LA 2026 In distress · TL 2025 Moderate · MM 2021 STALE · MAC AMS empty |
| `public_debt_pct_gdp` | % GDP | IMF WEO via `fiscal_debt` | **2026** projection companion |
| `external_debt_stocks_pct_gni` | % GNI | WDI `DT.DOD.DECT.GN.ZS` via `external_balance` | **2024** companion |

## Panel rules

| Panel | Metrics | Do not |
|-------|---------|--------|
| **(1) Sovereign LT FC ratings** | S&P / Moody's / Fitch letter grades (+ ordinals) | Invent BRN/MMR/TLS; treat Singapore AAA as PH peer; drop outlook badges |
| **(2) Debt distress / sustainability** | LIC-DSF overall risk for LICs; public debt % GDP for MAC | Invent DSF for ID/MY/PH/TH/VN/SG/BN; plot MM 2021 as current |
| **(3 optional) External debt** | `external_debt_stocks_pct_gni` | Confuse with public debt % GDP; invent BRN/MY/SG IDS cells |

## Files

| File | Role |
|------|------|
| `scoreboard.csv` | Long-format — **canonical** |
| `scoreboard_wide.csv` | Wide pivot |
| `timeseries.csv` | Multi-year external debt % GNI + single-year public debt companion |
| `gaps.md` | Honest empties + caveats |
| `provenance.json` | Freeze metadata |
| `_raw/` | WDI JSON · Tavily extracts · DSF notes |
| `../../PUBLISHABLE_Sovereign_Ratings_Debt_SEA.md` | Writer brief |
| `../../SPEC_Sovereign_Ratings_Debt_SEA.md` | Designer brief |

## Reading notes

- **Philippines** S&P **BBB+** Stable (Apr 2026) sits above Fitch **BBB** Negative — dual-agency split is the story, not a single blended grade.
- **Singapore** is the AAA/Aaa hub — show separately from the PH peer lens (MY/TH/VN/ID).
- **Laos** is the distress pole: LIC-DSF **In debt distress** (2026) + agency CCC+/Caa2 cluster + public debt **74.6%** GDP (WEO 2026) + external debt **115.4%** GNI (2024).
- **Cambodia** DSF **Low** (2025) despite Moody's **B2** speculative-grade rating — ratings ≠ DSF.
- **Myanmar** DSF cell is **STALE 2021** — conflict/data caveat.

## British English

Documentation uses British English where it does not conflict with primary-source labels (agency US spelling in quoted rating actions — preserve).