# Gaps & caveats — Sovereign ratings & debt distress SEA

**As of:** 2026-09-21 · pack `topics/sovereign_ratings_debt/` · Linear [MED2-70](https://linear.app/media-os/issue/MED2-70/sovereign-ratings-and-debt-distress-sea-scoreboard-brief-spec)

## Dual-panel firewall

- **Sovereign LT FC ratings** (S&P / Moody's / Fitch letter grades) and **LIC-DSF debt-distress risk** are **separate panels**. Never average, never fuse into one composite score.
- **Ordinals** (`*_lt_fc_ordinal`) are sort helpers only — not cardinal credit scores.
- **Public debt % GDP** and **external debt % GNI** are **companions** joined from `topics/fiscal_debt/` and `topics/external_balance/` — cite, do not reinvent.

## Sovereign ratings — intentional empties / unrated

| ISO3 | Status | Note |
|------|--------|------|
| **BRN** | **GAP / unrated** | No public LT FC sovereign rating located across S&P / Moody's / Fitch primary pages. |
| **MMR** | **GAP / unrated** | No current public LT FC sovereign rating. |
| **TLS** | **GAP / unrated** | No public LT FC sovereign rating. |
| **KHM** S&P | **GAP** | Last dated history print B (2014); aggregators show NR/withdrawn — do not invent. |
| **KHM** Fitch | **GAP** | No current Fitch sovereign IDR in public tables. |
| **VNM** S&P | **SECONDARY / stale history** | Rankings still show BB; last dated history print May 2021. GAP fresh S&P primary release — do not invent BB+. |
| **THA** S&P | **SECONDARY / stale history** | Last dated GlobalEconomy S&P print Apr 2020 BBB+; rankings still BBB+. Prefer Fitch 18 Sep 2026 primary for Thailand panel. |

## Sovereign ratings — secondary (aggregator) locks

Where agency HTML/PDF was paywalled or blocked from this host, TheGlobalEconomy / MOF–CB republication was used and labelled **SECONDARY** or **PRIMARY (republication)** in `scoreboard.csv` notes. Prefer replacing SECONDARY rows with agency primary URLs on next refresh.

Notable SECONDARY rows: Moody's PH/ID/TH/VN/KH/LA; Fitch MY (Dec 2025); S&P LA; Fitch LA.

## LIC-DSF — coverage rules

| ISO3 | Locked category | Vintage | Caveat |
|------|-----------------|---------|--------|
| **KHM** | Low | 2025 Art IV DSA (CR 25/317) | Primary IMF elibrary / WB PDF. |
| **LAO** | In debt distress | DSA list 20 Feb 2026 | External + overall; list also flags Unsustainable. |
| **TLS** | Moderate | 2025 Art IV DSA (CR 25/278) | Judgement applied; unchanged vs 2024. |
| **MMR** | Low (**STALE**) | 28 Jan 2021 | Still listed on IMF DSA list as of 31 Mar 2026, but >3 years old — IMF excludes from current LIC comparisons. **Do not plot as a 2025–26 print.** |
| **BRN, IDN, MYS, PHL, SGP, THA, VNM** | **N/A (empty)** | — | Market-access / not under LIC-DSF. Use `public_debt_pct_gdp` companion. **Do not invent MAC-DSA risk categories.** |

## Companion debt series

- `public_debt_pct_gdp`: IMF WEO GGXWDG 2026 projections via `fiscal_debt` (gross debt — Singapore high gross ≠ distress peer to Laos).
- `external_debt_stocks_pct_gni`: WDI `DT.DOD.DECT.GN.ZS` 2024 — IDS developing reporters; **BRN / MYS / SGP empty** (expected).
- WDI `GC.DOD.TOTL.GD.ZS` coverage too thin / stale for SEA-11 scoreboard primary (e.g. PH last 2014) — not used as primary public-debt lock.

## Cross-pack / tourism note

- Tourism **receipts** remain blocked: WDI `ST.INT.RCPT.CD` last non-null for PH is **2020**; `BX.GSR.TRVL.CD` empty on pull 2026-09-21. Arrivals pack stays separate (`tourism_recovery`).

## Auth / source blockers this pull

- IMF `DSAlist.pdf` direct download returned **Access Denied** from this host — DSF list cells locked via WebSearch extract of the same PDF (as of 31 Mar 2026) + elibrary DSA article snippets.
- S&P / Fitch entity HTML often blocked/paywalled — used press titles, MOF/CB republications, and labelled aggregators.